Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data
Current methods for reconstructing human populations of the past by age and sex are deterministic or do not formally account for measurement error. We propose a method for simultaneously estimating age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data that incorporates measurement error. Inference is based on joint posterio...
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Empirical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature in the past millennium based on multiproxy records depict small-amplitude variations followed by a clear warming trend in the past two centuries. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years as a surrogate climate to test the skill of these methods, particularly at multidecadal and centennial time...
متن کاملComment on "Reconstructing past climate from noisy data".
von Storch et al. (Reports, 22 October 2004, p. 679) criticized the ability of the "hockey stick" climate field reconstruction method to yield realistic estimates of past variation in Northern Hemisphere temperature. However, their conclusion was based on incorrect implementation of the reconstruction procedure. Calibration was performed using detrended data, thus artificially removing a large ...
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We implemented a proxy-based method for reconstructing temperatures in the past millennium in simulations with two climate models using the pseudoproxy approach. We show results for detrended and nondetrended calibration using white-noise and red-noise pseudoproxies with realistic noise levels. In all cases, the method underestimates the low-frequency variability of the simulated Northern Hemis...
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, 529 (2006); 312 Science et al. Hans von Storch Data" Response to Comment on "Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. clicking here. colleagues, clients, or customers by , you can order high-quality copies for your If you wish to distribute this article to others here. following the guidelines can be obtained by Permission to republish o...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the American Statistical Association
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0162-1459,1537-274X
DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2012.737729